What Makes Risk Predictable?
Most of the cyber insurance industry has been asking the same question for years: does this company have the right controls?
Ryan Dodd, founder of Intangic, thinks that’s the wrong question entirely. In this episode, Ryan unpacks new research with DePaul University showing that attacker behaviour patterns can predict breaches, often up to 90 days before they happen.
We get into what that pre-breach window really looks like, why traditional ratings miss it, how insurers can start incorporating these signals without rebuilding their entire underwriting stack, and the uncomfortable incentive question at the heart of predictive risk: if you can see a breach coming, do you warn the company or price for it?
We’ll be discussing frameworks for identifying concentration exposures in your portfolio, 3 realistic catastrophe scenarios with estimated impact ranges, and shared methodology for stress testing that both primary and reinsurer teams can use in renewals discussions.
What We’ll Tackle:
1. Cloud Infrastructure Aggregation
– Identifying hidden concentrations across AWS/Azure/GCP
– Business interruption triggers from single cloud provider failure
2. Software Supply Chain Dependencies
– Modeling downstream impact of critical vendor compromise
– CrowdStrike-style scenarios – operational failure vs. malicious attack
3. Correlation vs. Independence Assumptions
– Where current models underestimate simultaneous claims
– Geographic/sector diversification – does it actually reduce systemic risk?
4. Realistic Loss Scenarios & Stress Testing
– Building credible catastrophe scenarios with limited historical data
– PML estimates reinsurers will accept vs. what actuaries can defend
Why Now?
Reinsurers are increasingly challenging primary insurers’ accumulation assumptions, while regulators demand stress testing that current models can’t support. With limited historical data for systemic cyber events, both sides need new approaches to quantify concentration risk.
Attendees:
– Head of Cyber Cat Modeling/Portfolio Management
– Chief Actuary / CRO
– Reinsurance Brokers
– Reinsurer Underwriters & Cat Modelers
Participants
Guests
Ryan Dodd
Founder @ Intangic
SVP BD @ Searchlight Cyber
Rick Caccia
CEO @ WitnessAI